[UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Naib
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[UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

Post by Naib »

So wind back a few years and on f.g.o/otw I posted in a thread about electrification that the biggest issue was going to be infrastructure NOT the ability to produce electric cars - Tesla are just the Apple of the cars... they took existing tech and packaged it, it showed we are ready.

So with OTW lost now I cant get the specific details but I went over the UK stats to determine ~ how much energy was used by cars (based it around a Model 3 BMW and the available information). The conclusion was the infrastructure would need to TRIPLE at the very least to support every single car being electric and remember come 2030 "no ICE cars can legally be sold" and the stupid artificial petrol crisis in the UK (due to ass-hat ministers changing HGV tax code and unions leaking and spinning a concern...) has spiked electric car interest.

While the UK is burning a trail in windfarm, we still heavily rely on natural gas to assist in base-load. With the new Norway HVDC link there is as least exchange of GWh to smooth out the fluxuation from wind and there are still some nuclear plants being built. THIS however is only generation, the distribution is the issue. Thousands of substations and burred domestic cabling all expected to suddenly support at least 3x the current ....

Someone has woken up and in true BS fashion their solution is to control the EV chargers and have them disable during peak hours ...
https://insideevs.com/news/537120/ev-ch ... ff-uk/amp/
The United Kingdom plans to pass legislation that will see EV home and workplace chargers being switched off at peak times to avoid blackouts.

Announced by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, the proposed law stipulates that electric car chargers installed at home or at the workplace may not function for up to nine hours a day to avoid overloading the national electricity grid.

As of May 30, 2022, new home and workplace chargers being installed must be “smart” chargers connected to the internet and able to employ pre-sets limiting their ability to function from 8 am to 11 am and 4 pm to 10 pm. However, users of home chargers will be able to override the pre-sets should they need to, although it’s not clear how often they will be able to do that.

In addition to the nine hours a day of downtime, authorities will be able to impose a “randomized delay” of 30 minutes on individual chargers in certain areas to prevent grid spikes at other times.

I told you so....
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RoGeorge
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Naib wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:49 am ...
the infrastructure would need to TRIPLE at the very least to support every single car being electric
...
Could be even worst, considering those estimations are averaging the numbers for a whole country, while the density of cars and chargers is much bigger in a city than in rural areas. Cities would need much more than triple. Should be interesting to redo the estimation averaging only the numbers for a given city.

Another drawback is that the infrastructure for electrical power distribution inside a city is very hard to extend/upgrade. The construction sites required will impact and disturb any other activity of the city.

I'll say there is no chance to upgrade a city in 10 years.

Saying that because I've worked for a good number of years in the energy sector for the Romanian national power grid. No matter the country, infrastructure projects are incredibly expensive and slow to build, and they are always freeloaded by politics and corruption.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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How electric cars suppose to be greener? I still don't get it. Production of liion batteries is dirty business, recycling them is not something that can be done easily (it's too expensive), maybe Japan, Korea and US can recycle batteries somehow, but world wide? forget it. The energy which you pump to these batteries have to go from somewhere, it can be the dirtiest coal plant in the whole country. Throwing away of your car, or 40% of it each 7-10 years is certainly good for profits of car manufacturers, but how it should help the environment??? Electric cars are just another product of capitalism, where they package bullshit very well, advertise it with fake promises and sell to dumb people, which we have no shortage of.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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etnull wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:59 pm How electric cars suppose to be greener? I still don't get it. Production of liion batteries is dirty business, recycling them is not something that can be done easily (it's too expensive), maybe Japan, Korea and US can recycle batteries somehow, but world wide? forget it. The energy which you pump to these batteries have to go from somewhere, it can be the dirtiest coal plant in the whole country. Throwing away of your car, or 40% of it each 7-10 years is certainly good for profits of car manufacturers, but how it should help the environment??? Electric cars are just another product of capitalism, where they package bullshit very well, advertise it with fake promises and sell to dumb people, which we have no shortage of.
don't get me started on that :) its the diirty little secret of the "green movement". Strip mining Li is nasty as well.
Its the same with wind turbine, you can't recycle the blades and they are aging 30% faster.

Right now an ICE will produce more CO2 than an EV (only just) but that is assuming the recycling of the batteries, which is extremely hard. Its the same with the Solar Panel industry...

on a plusnote it keeps my skillset highly valued :)
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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It was inevitable that this would happen after we cast our marvelous 10 extra British volts to the void to placate the foul bonaparte-hitler alliance and their feckless vassal states.
Last edited by mrbassie on Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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NY just mandated all electric by 2035 as well...

Western NY should have some of the cheapest electricity in the world due to Niagara Falls, the nuclear plants we have upstate (Ginna, Fitzpatrick, Nine Mile), and the wind projects scattered all throughout the southern tier... instead, we have some of the highest electricity rates in the country because NYC refuses to have power plants inside of the city and, like NYC does, simply uses the rest of the, largely rural and disparately populated, state to feed itself. The rest of the state has to subsidize NYC through things like increased energy costs and they don't care that their boot has long choked out the productive businesses and people, they're going to kick the carcass as much as they can.

NY has the additional problems of being a pretty cold, snowy state once you get away from NYC... and to top it off, we use a fuckton of salt on the roads, not only eating away all of the steel on an ICE car, but I can imagine corrosion problems coming for electric cars.

My daily commute is 25 miles each way and there is no charger available near my building. Often, I end up having to drive an additional 100 miles in that same day, putting me at 150 miles of range in ideal conditions. During the winter, I'm going to lose battery power to heating and increase headlight use at night (since it's dark 16 hours/day). So, realistically, I need a car that does at least a 300 mile charge. With that, we're talking about a $60k car, minimum... and I would have to recharge it every day to make sure it's topped off, just in case. A full recharge could cost me 80kWh at $0.20/kWh = $16.

Most people can't afford to buy a $60k car every 8-12 years (again, road salt is a bitch) and you would have to question whether or not it would even be worth it to swap out a battery pack after maybe 8 years, since the car's value is going to be minimal due to salt damage to begin with. Good luck if you're low income, good luck if you're a teen.

Electric may be great for NYC... where nobody really drives and those that do have relatively short commutes. But, for the rest of the state, it's completely impractical. And that's before we even get into load issues. We're already turning productive farm land upstate into solar farms instead - so expect the cost of agricultural products to go up, so we can get that sweet, sweet energy when we have 16 hours of darkness for a significant part of the year... not to mention all of the pollution that solar causes.

I really, really hate this state.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Hint: Buy a late model used car in the South. Even in Virginia rusty cars are rare.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Tony0945 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:03 pm Hint: Buy a late model used car in the South. Even in Virginia rusty cars are rare.
I do well enough that I'll be ok... the average New Yorker won't be though (including all of the other adults in my extended family).

But I'm still going to run out of battery power on a regular basis.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Welcome to neo-feudalism you post capitalist peons. Or, was it, the road to hell is paved with good intentions? Maybe somewhere in between? When Texas can't even keep the lights on, the methods that used to work went where? They just up and disappeared?
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Sunday, as I was out and about, I saw a Tesla, the small variety, pulling a camper. It was not a large camper, but I was left wondering what its new reduced range was.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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saellaven wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:59 pmMy daily commute is 25 miles each way and there is no charger available near my building. Often, I end up having to drive an additional 100 miles in that same day, putting me at 150 miles of range in ideal conditions. During the winter, I'm going to lose battery power to heating and increase headlight use at night (since it's dark 16 hours/day). So, realistically, I need a car that does at least a 300 mile charge. With that, we're talking about a $60k car, minimum... and I would have to recharge it every day to make sure it's topped off, just in case. A full recharge could cost me 80kWh at $0.20/kWh = $16.

Most people can't afford to buy a $60k car every 8-12 years (again, road salt is a bitch) and you would have to question whether or not it would even be worth it to swap out a battery pack after maybe 8 years, since the car's value is going to be minimal due to salt damage to begin with. Good luck if you're low income, good luck if you're a teen.

Electric may be great for NYC... where nobody really drives and those that do have relatively short commutes. But, for the rest of the state, it's completely impractical. And that's before we even get into load issues. We're already turning productive farm land upstate into solar farms instead - so expect the cost of agricultural products to go up, so we can get that sweet, sweet energy when we have 16 hours of darkness for a significant part of the year... not to mention all of the pollution that solar causes.

I really, really hate this state.
While I understand your point, it doesn't seem nearly as bad as you are making it out to be. A Chevy Bolt has 260 mile range, and is well under the $60k price. If your work you installed charging stations, then the Bolt would have plenty of range for your scenarios. Getting chargers installed by 2035 doesn't sound unreasonable to me. And it also seems likely that EV costs will come down (inflation adjusted) by 2035.

Edit: Forgot you own your own business.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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It's been clear to me for a long time that until you don't own the the "drive battery" in your EV and only rent it, stopping at traditional style "petrol stations", or having it replaced overnight/at your convenience by "recharging service" it's not practical on a large scale, especially with the green lobby so opposed to any kind of sensible energy generation.
Once you are in the "replace the battery in 5 minutes" paradigm you are open to many more green and properly sustainable technologies too, such as AlO2 batteries, which are infinitely more sustainable than Li based ones. Personally I'll stick to petrol until I can have a sub-miniature Gen6 reactor. You also can't ignore petroleum product run generators being more efficient that direct drive ICE's. This can't be a binary switch, and anyone who thinks it can is deluded.

During all this sophistry, you need to keep an eye on the environmental cost producing a car; the CO2 emitted by an old 1990 1.1 fiesta with 20k on the clock, if you were to drive it to destruction, is way less than producing a new EV , but this doesn't generate profits for car manufacturers. You can see the profit driven paradigm in the "replace not repair" maintenance techniques too, real mechanics are rare, all you find nowadays are fitters, because it's a more scalable business model for someone to siphon the profits from.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Well California just banned all small (ie 2-stroke) engines forcing a full retrofit of all outfits that use such things... Gardeners, loggers etc...

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/face ... 0220AB1346

Its all well and good that these bottom feeders sign stuff in like that, they don't think about the short-term ramifications and thus do not plan for it. Take this... whats in place to help replace all these 2-stroke? are there actual stock available?
Its like the UK with their "All ICE sales banned by 2030" ... thats nice, nice headline grabber but they might not be in power to deal with the fallout...

This is the problem with a 4-5year voting cycle... politicians care about the next voting period to stay in power
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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dont_think_twice wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:26 am While I understand your point, it doesn't seem nearly as bad as you are making it out to be. A Chevy Bolt has 260 mile range, and is well under the $60k price. If your work you installed charging stations, then the Bolt would have plenty of range for your scenarios. Getting chargers installed by 2035 doesn't sound unreasonable to me. And it also seems likely that EV costs will come down (inflation adjusted) by 2035.

Edit: Forgot you own your own business.
I don't own my current building though... I'm leasing roughly 10% of an 8000 sq ft building. I am looking to buy my own building though.

However, even if I install a charger for myself, am I supposed to install 10+ chargers to accommodate my employees? What is that going to cost me in terms of the cost of the charger, installing the charger, upgrading the electrical infrastructure of the building to support potentially 10*40A simultaneous chargers, etc? Are we going to add an additional $50k to the cost of every building, raising the barrier to owning or renting a property that much higher?

As far as the Bolt goes, it's a piece of crap. Ignoring the fire issues that will presumably worked out in the next 15 years, you're still talking about a $40k car, roughly double the price of the average entry level car right now (and 3x the cost of the lowest entry level model - also add $5-8k to the base price of a used vehicle to cover the cost of a battery swap). Again, it might be easy for you an I to cough up $40k, but to your average family, much less a young person just starting out, it isn't. Oh, and it still doesn't reach my spec of needing a 300 mile range to get through a potential regular day in the winter for me. I don't drive for a living, but a lot of people in rural America do need to drive longer distances on a regular basis. For the people that DO drive for a living, say, a travel nurse, it's an even bigger issue.

It also ignores the fact that I don't want to stop and wait 30-60 minutes every 4-5 hours of driving on a longer trip. A few times per year, I might take a weekend road trip, where I want to get to my destination and back in under 60 hours. I'm looking to enjoy the destination, not a pit stop in the middle of nowhere. Aren't Americans fat enough without stopping to eat every 4 hours to let the battery recharge?

Anyway, the whole thing reeks of "I'm going to pass legislation today for political credit, not even caring if the goal is reasonably feasible, and potentially hamstringing the people 15 years from now... when it becomes their problem after I've already gotten credit and I'm out of office/retired/dead." If they were really serious about it, they would be talking about a major infrastructure upgrade today, including new nuclear plants (the only green way we're going to be able to add that much night time base load). But this is just a repeat of the Social Security Amendment of 1967 that drained the Social Security Trust Fund to pay for the Great Society and escalation of Vietnam (the government knew they blew the budget but needed to cover up the problem to avoid blame). Kick the can down the road, screwing everyone else over, while patting yourself on the back. Fat Kim isn't starving while the rest of the people of North Korea are.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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mrbassie wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:58 pm foul bonaparte-hitler alliance and their feckless vassal states.
:D :D :D
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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Electric vehicles are even less attractive in rural states like Wyoming and even 2/3 of my state (Oregon) where there are more antelope per square mile than people and long distances between towns.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

Post by john-boy »

Well our PM has gone stark raving bonkers - re: green politics, I mean there ain't no way a heat pump is going to work in this 1930's set-up.

Oh and we've got spiking energy costs like you wouldn't believe and our masters won't reduce the green levy on fuel duty, they're even on about increasing the taxation on gas. Whilst we should have been fracking, using our coal and also have had a steady investment in nuclear.

But we can't be having that, oh no - the green lobby want to return us to the stone age.

Sorry. Needed to vent and this seemed the most appropriate thread.
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

Post by Naib »

Dont forget E10 petrol change a few months ago " produces fewer emssions"

Problem is because it reduces the energy output you end up burning more fuel for doing the same journeys ... So you end up filling up, spending more £££ and producing more emssions
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Re: [UK] Electrical infrastructure not enough

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saellaven wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:37 am However, even if I install a charger for myself, am I supposed to install 10+ chargers to accommodate my employees? What is that going to cost me in terms of the cost of the charger, installing the charger, upgrading the electrical infrastructure of the building to support potentially 10*40A simultaneous chargers, etc? Are we going to add an additional $50k to the cost of every building, raising the barrier to owning or renting a property that much higher?
The prices of charging stations will likely come down as they become commodities. You won't be the only person who needs to put chargers in to keep employees, so it will likely become a standard thing in the near future.
As far as the Bolt goes, it's a piece of crap. Ignoring the fire issues that will presumably worked out in the next 15 years, you're still talking about a $40k car, roughly double the price of the average entry level car right now (and 3x the cost of the lowest entry level model - also add $5-8k to the base price of a used vehicle to cover the cost of a battery swap). Again, it might be easy for you an I to cough up $40k, but to your average family, much less a young person just starting out, it isn't.
The MSRP of the Bolt is $31k. It may be crap (I have no idea), but most of the other cars cheaper than it are crap too. A Honda Civic is a solid car, with an MSRP of $22k. So perhaps it currently costs $10k more to get an electric vehicle. That number will surely drop over the next 15 years.
Anyway, the whole thing reeks of "I'm going to pass legislation today for political credit, not even caring if the goal is reasonably feasible, and potentially hamstringing the people 15 years from now... when it becomes their problem after I've already gotten credit and I'm out of office/retired/dead."
While I share your general concern about politicians short term thinking, this law doesn't seem like a very good example of that issue. Changing automotive manufacturers plans takes time. You can't just pass a law that says "all cars must be electric starting tomorrow". Instead, you need to pick a point in the future and make a binding requirement, so that companies can prepare for the switch-over. Fifteen years is a good time frame for this - not too long, so that nobody cares, but not so short that it is impossible to prepare for.
If they were really serious about it, they would be talking about a major infrastructure upgrade today, including new nuclear plants (the only green way we're going to be able to add that much night time base load).
Sure building more nuclear would be a good step. But realistically that isn't going to happen. We need a plan B that provides clean energy in another way. Probably solar + wind + batteries.
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